Text
Towards a new policy on the South China Sea
While Indonesia is not a claimant state in the South China Sea, China’s actions have increasingly encroached into Indonesia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This has necessitated a new stance with regard to China. Related to this, there appears to be growing realization that Indonesia cannot be reactive and defensive when it comes to repeated Chinese incursions into its territory, and that a strategy is needed.
In order to craft a strategy, Indonesia must be mindful of the current geopolitical realities. In this regard, it is important that Indonesia take into account recent developments in the region, its military capabilities compared to China’s, as well as the potential for greater cooperation with like-minded countries to counter China’s actions.
This paper has crafted a scenario planning forecast which takes into account the critical uncertainties related to China’s actions (escalation or de-escalation) and Indonesia’s ability (or inability) to build coalitions with other countries against China. Finally, the paper proposes a number of steps that can be taken by Indonesia. In addition to the long-term strategy of improving its military capabilities, it recommends closer cooperation with like-minded countries, including in forming mini-lateral security initiatives and capacity building. This should also be complemented with maintaining close communications with China and improving coordination at the national level.
| 2022-0075 | Sesparlu 70-2022 | Training Materials Repository | Tersedia |
Tidak tersedia versi lain