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Unfolding the nuclear weapons states’ reservations to the protocol to the treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone (SEANWFZ): Exploring options for possible way forward
This paper examines the increasingly present threat of nuclear war since the end of the Cold War, exacerbated by the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, overlapping maritime claims in the South China Sea, growing tension in the Taiwan Strait, recurring nuclear tests in the Korean Peninsula, nuclear non-proliferation challenges in South Asia, and nuclear risks from the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines agreement. Amid this situation, global nuclear disarmament efforts remain bleak, with nine states possessing approximately 12,512 nuclear weapons as of early 2023, of which 3,844 warheads were deployed with operational forces. ASEAN cannot remain unworried about its Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) status, as the pending signing of the SEANWFZ Treaty Protocol by Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) leaves the region entirely unprotected from nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. This paper provides an overview of reservations planned by four NWS (France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States) upon signing or ratification of the SEANWFZ Treaty Protocol, unfolds the complexities inherent in those reservations, and explores possible policy choices and initiatives that could break the impasse in fully realizing the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone.
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