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Balancing national interest and regional stewardship: Indonesia’s strategy for ASEAN Secretary-General nomination and tenure (2028-2032)

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Indonesia’s nomination of the ASEAN Secretary-General for the 2028–2032 term presents a strategic opportunity to shape ASEAN’s institutional trajectory amid geopolitical rivalry, weakening multilateralism, and domestic political dynamics. The central challenge is identifying a candidate who is politically acceptable at home while maintaining regional credibility. Through scenario analysis combining the Oxford scenario-planning method and Human Artificial Intelligence Collaboration (HAIC), this paper identifies four plausible futures, with the Politicized Strategic Loyalist scenario emerging as the most plausible near-term outcome. It recommends a dual-legitimacy strategy based on policy driven candidate selection, institutionalized consultation mechanisms, and recognition of the Secretary General’s autonomy as a strategic asset. This approach aims to preserve ASEAN’s institutional credibility, sustain regional trust, and strengthen Indonesia’s long-term leadership and influence.

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Ketersediaan

2026-2030

Sesparlu 78-2026

Training Materials Repository

Tersedia

Informasi Detail

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

Sesparlu 78-2026

Penerbit

Jakarta : Kementerian Luar Negeri., 2026

Deskripsi Fisik

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Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

NONE

Tipe Isi

text

Tipe Media

computer

Tipe Pembawa

online resource

Edisi

-

Subjek

-

Info Detail Spesifik

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

UPT Sekolah Staf dan Pimpinan Kementerian Luar Negeri

Versi lain/terkait

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